Nigeria Decides: Election Prediction For States & Parties [SEE LIST]

In this post, Arctic Reporters analysis factors capable of causing either the All Progressives Congress, APC, or the People’s Democratic Pary, PDP, win elections in some states.

Election is a game, and as other games, if diligently analyzed one can make useful predictions that may end up becoming reality.

Check out the states below, and check back to compare it with results that’ll be announced after the election, enjoy:


Katsina is President Buhari’s Home state but according to analysts, the President may concede defeat to Atiku due to certain factors.

Firstly, though Atiku hails from Adamawa, Katsina is considered his second home. He has working relationship with the influencial Yar’adua family.

Secondly, the PDP has always ruled the Northwestern state, save in the 2015 elections when it conceded defeat to the APC, hence the party still has enormous followership in the state.


Adamawa is the Home state of ex-Vice President  and presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar.

Presently, the north eastern state is ruled by the APC, with its current Governor Jibrilla Bindow, considered as the best governor the state has ever witnessed.

The chance of Atiku winning is Adamawa analyst say is very slim.

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Akwa Ibom

Though the south south state is largely controlled by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Buhari is expected to receive more votes than he got during the 2015 election.

However, Atiku is highlighted to be the winner of elections in the state. Akwa Ibom state has never been ruled by the APC but with the recent defection of Senator Godswill Akpabio, a one time governor of the state, the APC is expected to have large follower-ship but won’t match PDP’s influence in the state.


In Benue, the chances of the leading candidates to emerge winners are equal. Governor Samuel Ortom who recently defected from the APC to the PDP is seeking re-election bid against APC’s Emmanuel Jime.

Considering Ortom’s low rating salary payments and unending Fulani herdsmen attack, the PDP may face a big blow in elections.

However, when it comes to influence, the PDP is slightly topping the charts against APC in the state.


The Southwestern state is amongst those states that cannot be firmly predicted because voters can turn either side for President Buhari or Atiku.

Although the state is presently controlled by the APC, crises rocking the leadership of the ruling party may be advantageous to the PDP side in elections across the state.


The southeastern state has a unique case. Ordinarily, been the only eastern state controlled by the APC, one would have only predicted massive success for the ruling party but putting to consideration the serious internal crises rocking the party in the state, the APC now has a divided vote.

Also, the choice of Peter Obi as Atiku’s running mate is a fact many voters in the state may put to consideration while casting their votes.

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The center of excellence is predicted to excellently support President Muhammadu Buhari but with the failure of the Incumbent governor Ambode to secure re-election bid, no doubt some party supporters have been aggrieved and may work with the PDP to profer considerable number of votes for Atiku.


When it comes to Rivers State, no doubt, the PDP will take the lead. Atiku is expected to possess resounding victory in the state because of certain factors.

Firstly, the APC candidates in Rivers state have been barred from participating in the elections. Secondly, the national leader of the PDP, Price Secondus hails from the state and thirdly, the state is been controlled by the PDP.

However, Buhari can count on the influence of his campaign Director, Rotimi Amaechi and the Flagoff of Ogoni Cleanup project, launching of a new terminal at the Port-Harcourt international airport to deliver votes for him.


Buhari and the APC have strong influence in the state of about 9.4 million people, analysts predict that Buhari is most likely to win the northern state with a wide margin. However, Atiku can count on the influence of ex-governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who contested with him for the PDP presidential ticket.


For Kwara it will be an underground battle between President Buhari and Senate President, Saraki. There exist equal chances for both the APC and PDP to win elections because:

(i) Saraki is been haunted by the ‘O te ge’ movement. A yoruba statement meaning ‘enough is enough’,  which provides a chance for the APC to win in the state, however
(ii) Atiku can also count on Saraki who is also his Campaign Director to gather votes for him as the number three citizen of the country.


According to Analysts, its not really possible to predict how the elections will go in the south western state between Buhari and Atiku.


Analysts say President Buhari will win in Jigawa state. This is as a result of combining factors, which include:
incumbency advantage, gale of defection and the profile of candidates in the sight of voters.


According to Analysts, President Buhari will win the day but with a lesser margin than he did in 2015. Those from the Northern part of the state  are expected to vote for him while the southerners will certainly support Atiku with their vote.


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